Trade War: A Trigger of The Next Recession?
Well. Almost everybody said that the trade war is the trigger of The Next Recession. But for me it is not. From what I can observe, that the trade war is only a bad economic event for a short period only. Because I think the next trade meeting between the US and China will come out a good result. Although, both of them were still impose each other tariff.
Symptom of Recession.
The US Bond Yield Curve
The Year 1997,2008,2019. Every recession it will late for year to happen.
The longest bull market.
When will be The Next Recession?
I will say that The Next Recession will come to between the February and April of 2019. I think it will happen after the first time that FEDERAL BANK raise the interest in 2019.
How will it happen?
I just mention that it may happen after the first raising interest rate in 2019. This is because if there is two time the Federal raise the rate in 2018. It may slow down the China's economic because China's national debt is increasing with a higher volume year by year. I think that the raise of interest will lead the public to drop out more China Bond and the business firm to slow down their productivity. Besides, the raise of interest will slow down US market too. Thus, it will slow down both countries market that is leading the world market right now. By the way, the cycle of the economic will come to the end because the recent longest bull market had access. This mean that the market is in high value right now and will cause a bubble after the decrease in money supply due to the raise of interest.
No comments:
Post a Comment